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Prediction for CME (2024-10-26T06:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-10-26T06:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/34212/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible as a partial halo directed towards the southeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is an eruption and X1.8 flare from Active Region 13873 (S16E60) starting around 2024-10-26T06:30Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. A wide opening of field lines is visible over the southeast limb in SDO AIA 171 and 193, with post eruptive arcades visible in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 starting around 07:50Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-10-28T04:13Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-10-28T08:10Z (-6.45h, +8.01h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 95.0%
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:

Time of Launch: 2024/10/26 06:40Z
Plane of Sky 1: 09:30Z; 31.5Rsun; ESE Direction
Plane of Sky 2: 15:20Z; 31.5Rsun; WNW Direction
POS Difference: 5:50
POS Midpoint: 12:25Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 5:45

Numeric View/Impact Type: 1
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~8.61
Travel Time: ~8.61 * 5:45 = 49:30

Predicted L1 Arrival: 2024-10-28T08:10Z

Error Parameters:
 - POS Difference: 1 Hour
 - Travel Time Square Root: 50%
Method Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/nfk166mjdh

Notes:
Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 5/5


Forecast Creation Time: 2024/10/26 11:26Z

***** UPDATE: A wrong value was entered into the initial prediction. The invalid value was a POS Difference of 4:50 rather than 5:50.

Lead Time: 21.42 hour(s)
Difference: -3.95 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2024-10-27T06:48Z

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